Showing posts with label foreign exchange. Show all posts
Showing posts with label foreign exchange. Show all posts

Tuesday, 28 May 2013

Israel Central Banker's cuts rate 2nd time this month

Israel cuts rate 2nd time this month to weaken shekel - Central Bank News

Israel's central bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points for the second time this month to 1.25 percent to "narrow the gaps between the Bank of Israel's interest rate and the rates in major economies worldwide, in order to weaken the forces for appreciation of the shekel."
    The Bank of Israel (BoI) already cut its rate in a surprise move on May 13 when it said it would intervene in foreign exchange markets to weaken the shekel which has appreciated in response to due to the start of natural gas production, rate cuts by other central banks, continued quantitative easing in major economies and moderate global growth.
    In its statement today, the BoI said "the expansionary policy of central banks in major advanced economies is expected to continue, according to their announcements, in coming year as well."
    Other factors cited by the BoI include inflationary expectations that are slightly below the midpoint of the central bank's target, a lower budget deficit that will moderate the growth in demand, mixed global growth and government measures in the housing sector that are expected to moderate demand in the housing market.
    The BOI said it would continue to monitor economic developments and use its available tool to achieve price stability, encourage employment and growth, support the financial system and "in this regard will keep a close watch on developments in the asset markets, including the housing market."

    Financial markets were split in their expectations to today's policy meeting by the BoI, with those expecting a rate cut pointing to the minutes from the May 13 meeting that showed that half of the bank's monetary committee had voted for a 50 basis point reduction but Governor Stanley Fischer had used his tie-breaking vote to limit the cut to 25 basis points.
    From the BoI's policy meeting in March, when it left rates steady, to the day before its unscheduled meeting on May 12, the shekel had risen by almost 3 percent against the U.S. dollar. But following the
surprise rate cut on May 13, the shekel reversed course and fell by about 3.9 percent, the BoI said.
    This decline broke the trend of continued appreciation since mid-2012. Following today's rate cut, the shekel fell to 3.71 per U.S. dollar, down from 3.57 prior to the May 13 rate move, nearing the 3.73 rate at the start of this year.
    In 2012 the BoI cut its policy rate by 100 basis points but May's cut was the first this year.
    Israel's inflation rate fell to 0.8 percent in April from 1.3 percent in March, below the central bank's lower bound of its 1-3 percent target range.
    Since the BoI's first rate cut this month, inflation expectations have risen slightly to just below 2 percent from 1.7 percent and inflation expectations for 2 years and longer range from 2.3-2.5 percent. Expectations for the BoI's policy rate one year from now range between 1.3 and 1.45 percent.
    Recent indicators of economic activity show moderate growth in the first quarter and mixed trend in April, with exports up by 5.6 percent in the first quarter after declines of 10 and 5 percent respectively in the previous two quarters, bringing it back to the level in the first quarter of 2011.
    In the first quarter, Israel's Gross Domestic Product rose by 0.68 percent from the fourth quarter for annual growth of 3.42 percent, up from 2.6 percent.
    The government's budget plan, if approved, should cut the deficit target to 3 percent of GDP in 2014, down from 4.65 percent in 2013, moderating the growth of demand.
    The BoI said the global economy continued to present a mixed picture in the past two months, with the main risks emanating from Europe, according to the International Monetary Fund, with medium
term risks include recession in Europe, fiscal crises in Japan and slower than expected growth in developing countries.
   
    www.CentralBankNews.info

Sunday, 19 May 2013

Serbia Central Banker cuts rate 50 bps last week

Serbia cuts rate 50 bps due to lower inflation pressure - Central Bank News

Serbia's central bank cut its policy rate by 50 basis points to 11.25 percent due to "significant lower inflationary pressure," and said the inflation rate is expected to return to its target range in the last quarter of this year.
    The National Bank of Serbia, which raised interest rates eight times in a row from June 2012 but then paused in March and April, said monthly inflation rates confirmed a weakening of inflationary pressures and future policy decisions would be determined by "international developments, fiscal movements and the impact of the new agricultural season on food prices."
    Serbia's annual inflation rate rose to 11.4 percent in April from 11.2 percent in March, but inflation is
slowly coming down after hitting a 2012-high of 12.9 percent in October due to lower pressure on food prices and inflationary expectations.
    The central bank targets inflation of 4.0 percent, plus/minus 1.5 percentage points.
    "Low aggregate demand, stable developments in the foreign exchange market and a falling risk premium of the country, together with the expected full-blown effect of past monetary policy measures, will contribute to a further fall in year-on-year inflation," the central bank said.

   Serbia's Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 after a fall of 0.8 percent in the third. But on an annual basis, GDP rose by 1.9 percent, the first time the economy expanded on an annual basis since the third quarter of 2011.
    The central bank expects economic growth of 2 percent this year, mainly driven by exports. In 2012 Serbia's economy contracted by 1.8 percent

    www.CentralBankNews.info

Wednesday, 8 May 2013

Belarus Central bank cuts rate 200 bps

Belarus cuts rate 200 bps, sees lower April inflation - Central Bank News


Belarus cuts rate 200 bps, sees lower April inflation

    The central bank of Belarus cut its benchmark refinancing rate by a further 200 basis points to 25 percent, its third cut this year, saying inflation is expected to be "significantly lower" in April than in previous months, which leaves real interest rates at "a significant positive level."
     The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, which has cut rates by 500 basis points this year, said a positive trade balance, along with a permanent excess supply of foreign exchange is stabilizing the Belarusian rouble, "and even strengthening it."
    Belarus, a former Soviet republic located between Russia and Poland, devalued its rouble by about half during a balance of payments crises in May 2011, sparking inflation that peaked at almost 110 percent in January 2012. The central bank responded to the surge in inflation by hiking interest rates from 10.5 in January 2011 to a high of 45 percent in December that year.
    Although the inflation rate was still over 100 percent, the central bank started slashing its rate in February 2012, cutting its policy rate by 1500 basis points last year - the largest amount by any central bank in the world - as inflation rapidly fell.
    In March, inflation in Belarus eased to 22.2 percent from February's 22.7 percent.
    In its policy guideline for 2013, the central bank expects its refinancing rate to reach 13-15 percent by the end of this year given the deceleration of inflation.

    www.CentralBankNews.info