Uganda Central Bank holds Interest rates in the first week of March

4th March 2014

Uganda's central bank maintained its Central Bank Rate (CBR) at a neutral level of 11.5 percent but said there were potential risks of stronger inflationary pressures from currency depreciation, stronger domestic demand and higher food prices while a possible decline in foreign aid was posing a source of uncertainty for the country's balance of payments and economy.
    The Bank of Uganda  (BOU), which cut its CBR rate by 50 basis points in 2013, cut its forecast for core inflation to 4-5 percent over the next few months, down from February's forecast of 5-6 percent in the first half of 2014, but added that inflation was then expected to rise to between 5.5 percent and 6.5 percent over the next 12 months.
    Uganda's headline inflation rate eased to 6.7 percent in February from January's 6.9 percent while core inflation, which excludes food, energy and utilities, fell to 3.7 percent in February from 4.6 percent. The BOU attributed the lower inflation rate to a 7.0 percent appreciation of the shilling in the 12 months to 2014.
    After strengthening last year, Uganda's shilling was hit last week after foreign aid donors, including the World Bank, withheld or threatened to withhold aid in reaction to new legislation that toughens the punishment for homosexuals.
    The drop in the shilling started last Wednesday with dealers saying the central bank had intervened and sold dollars to stop the decline. On Thursday the central bank continued to support the shilling and then on Friday the central bank confirmed it was selling foreign currency.
    Late on Thursday the World Bank said it was postponing a US$ 90 million loan for Uganda's health system and Sweden's finance minster then on Friday said the law would make it hard to continue funding projects. Denmark and Norway have already withheld aid while the United States, the country's biggest donor, is reviewing its aid for health projects.
    The shilling fell to 2,534.9 to the U.S. dollar last Friday, down 2.8 percent from the previous week's close, but rose slightly this week to trade around 2,523 today, largely unchanged from 2,525 end-2013.
    Despite uncertainty surrounding foreign aid, the central bank said it expects Uganda's economy to be "relatively buoyant" in the 2013/14 fiscal year, which began on July 1, due to fiscal stimulus, a strengthening global environment, strong inflows of foreign direct investment and household consumption.
    "However, there are risks to this growth outlook emanating from weak bank credit growth," the BOU said.
    Last month the BOU forecast growth in 2013/14 of 6.0 to 6.5 percent and said banks' credit to households had risen by 38 percent in December.
    Uganda's Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.6 percent in the third calendar quarter from the second quarter for annual growth of 2.2 percent, down from growth of 5.8 percent in the second quarter.

Uganda holds rate, foreign aid drop source of uncertainty - Central Bank News

Uganda Central Bank holds Interest rates in the first week of February

4th February 2014

Uganda's central bank held its Central Bank Rate (CBR) steady at 11.5 percent but softened its warning about inflation, saying it expects headline and core inflation to remain in the 5-6 percent range in the first half of this year and then rise only gradually above the bank's target over the next 12 months as excess capacity is absorbed.
    In today's policy statement, the Bank of Uganda (BOU) omitted last month's stern warning that it would take "appropriate action" to ensure than core inflation remains around the bank's 5.0 percent target.
    However, the central bank still noted there were several risks to inflation, including the dry spell in parts of the East African region that might affect food prices along with a reversal of the current exchange rate appreciation that could strengthen inflationary pressures.
    Uganda's core inflation, which excludes food, energy and utilities, eased to 4.6 percent in January from 5.7 percent in December, with core prices virtually flat in the three months to January due to exchange rate appreciation of about 6.8 percent over the last 12 months.
    Headline inflation rose to 6.9 percent in January from 6.7 percent due to a rise in annual food crop inflation to 21.4 percent form 12.7 percent.

    The BOU last cut its CBR rate by 50 basis points in December after cutting the rate in June and then raising it again in September.
    The BOU reiterated its forecast for economic growth in the current 2013/14 financial year, which began on July 1, to range between 6.0 and 6.5 percent, as household demand is slowly gaining traction and expected to continue to rise with banks' credit to households rising by 38 percent in December compared with a 13 percent contraction at the same time in 2012.
    The BOU expects this buoyant credit to support growth going forward, on top of fiscal stimulus and public infrastructure investment, but cautioned that the economy faces risks if the conflict in South Sudan is sustained.
    Uganda's economy contracted by 0.6 percent in the third calendar quarter from the second quarter for annual growth of 2.2 percent, down from a rate of 5.8 percent in the second quarter.

Uganda holds rate, drops warning about inflation - Central Bank News

Uganda Central Bank raises rate 100 bps to 12% beginning of the week on rising inflation

Uganda's central bank raised its central bank rate (CBR) by 100 basis points to 12.0 percent, saying a "modest tightening of monetary policy should act to discourage economic agents from raising non food prices in response to the food price shocks and should counter any rise in inflation expectations."
    The Bank of Uganda (BOU), which cut its rate by 100 basis points in June, quoted its governor, Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile, as saying he expects the core inflation rate to remain above 6 percent for the next few months, but by tightening policy now, "I am confident that it will fall back towards our policy target of 5 percent by the third quarter of 2014."
    Uganda is facing a supply side shock to agriculture that has raised food prices and may impede economic growth in 2013/14, the central bank said, with the risks to the outlook for core inflation over the next 12 months clearly rising.
    Headline inflation rose to 7.3 percent in August from 5.1 percent in July, driven by a 16 percent rise in food crop prices due to drought. Core inflation, however, remained relatively stable at 6.6 percent but the central bank said core inflation is likely to be pushed up because higher food prices affect items within the core inflation basket, such as maize and flour, and higher food prices also feed through to the general price level via cost-push effects and inflation expectations.

   Despite the worsening outlook for inflation, the central bank said it does not expect a repeat of the inflationary surge in 2011 because rapid bank credit growth and a large exchange rate depreciation do not pose the same effects in the current situation.
    "Nevertheless, it is prudent to ensure that any second round effects from the food supply shock on non food prices are contained, thereby limiting the upward pressure on core inflation, through a timely adjustment of monetary policy," the bank said.
    The governor said he was fully aware of the potential impact of the rat rise on economic activity, however "it is my strong view that this is a necessary to anchor inflation expectations and to support economic growth over the medium to long term."
    The central bank's band around the central bank rate will remain at plus/minus two percentage points and the margin on the rediscount rate will be three percentage points. The rediscount rate will be 15 percent and the bank rate 16 percent.

Uganda raises rate 100 bps to curtail inflation expectations - Central Bank News

for more insight log on to Bank of Uganda website : http://www.bou.or.ug/bou/home.html 

Uganda Central Bank holds rate, core inflation seen close to target

Uganda's central bank held its central bank rate (CBR) steady at 11.0 percent, saying it was maintaining a neutral policy stance as core inflation over the next 12 months is forecast to remain very close to the bank's 5.0 percent target.
    The Bank of Uganda (BOU), which cut its rate by 100 basis points in June, said the the risks to inflation remain on the upside, as last month, with pressures from the domestic supply side, along with the prospect of higher oil prices due to geopolitical factors in the Middle East and North Africa.
    "Demand pressures remain moderate and still do not pose a risk to the inflation outlook," the bank said.
    Headline and core inflation are likely to rise slightly in the next three to six months due to the impact of drought on food prices, but this is expected to be temporary and prices should then ease and stabilise around 5.0 percent.
    Headline inflation rose to 5.1 percent in July from 3.6 percent and core inflation to 6.4 percent from 5.8 percent due to higher food prices, particularly prices of processed food, which is likely transitory.
    Uganda's economy is forecast to expand by 6 percent in the 2013/14 financial year, which began July 1, but downside risks to growth remain, the bank said.

    A decline in private sector imports in the first six months of this year and a subdued pace of credit extension "suggests a softening of aggregate demand," but a decline in lending interest rates to 22.6 percent in June from 27 percent last year should contribute to a rise in private sector investment and stronger growth in the later part of 2013/14.
    Uganda's Gross Domestic Product shrank by a quarterly 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2013, but on an annual basis, GDP rose by 7.2 percent, down from 10.4 percent in the fourth quarter

Uganda holds rate, core inflation seen close to target - Central Bank News

for more details log on to Bank of Uganda website : http://www.bou.or.ug/bou/home.html 

Uganda Central Bank holds rate to boost growth ....

Uganda's central bank held its central bank rate (CBR) rate steady at 11.0 percent, saying it was maintaining a neutral policy stance to support private sector credit growth without jeopardizing its inflation objective.
    The Bank of Uganda (BOU), which cut its rate by 100 basis points last month, said the macroeconomic outlook was largely unchanged from last month "with the exception that we believe that the balance of risks to the inflation forecast have shifted slightly upward, mainly due to the threat posed to food prices by drought."
    Uganda's headline and core inflation rates eased to 3.4 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively, in May from 3.7 and 5.6 percent, and the BOU expects inflation to rise slightly over the next two to three months but then decline towards the bank's target of 5.0 percent by June 2014.
    "However, the adverse weather conditions currently being experiences in most parts of the country could push-up prices in the near term and this poses an upward risk to the inflation forecast," it said in a statement from July 2.

    Output from Uganda's economy is forecast to increase to 6 percent in the 2013/14 financial year, which began July 1, from a preliminary estimate of 5.1 percent in 2012/13. In May the BOU had forecast 2013/14 growth of 6-7 percent.
    But the BOU said the pick-up in real economic growth is unlikely to pose a risk to inflation as output is still below potential growth rate of about 7 percent.

Uganda holds rate to boost growth, higher inflation risks - Central Bank News

for more details log on to Bank of Uganda website : http://www.bou.or.ug/bou/home.html